Palestinian Statehood Update

Since our Aug. 31 blog post “Palestinian Statehood: Will It Bring Peace?” there have been a number of recent developments contributing to rising tensions at the United Nations in New York.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, reported to have been displeased with a last-minute U.S. compromise proposal communicated to him by envoys Dennis Ross and David Hale, decided to press ahead with the statehood bid. Barring an unanticipated last-minute reprieve, it’s going forward.

Yet just about everyone looks set to lose this week, when the proposal is likely to come before the Security Council, where it will face a veto by the United States (and possibly by others). This would effectively block the possibility of full state status for Palestine.

It’s then likely to be overwhelmingly approved in the General Assembly, with the U.S., Israel and maybe a few others voting against or abstaining. Yet the General Assembly doesn’t have the power to admit a nation to full member status of the UN. Palestine would then take on the role of “non-member state,” no doubt prolonging the frustration.

It’s all a lose-lose scenario. Palestine gets a UN upgrade, but no full member status, probable reduced funding from the West, and no improvement on the ground. Israel gets isolated and demonized once again in the UN, with nothing to show and possibly a new round of violence. Europe, for its part, will look to be divided and ineffective.

And the United States, which both parties have been looking to for an effective intercessory role, gets blamed, isolated and pushed aside. President Obama finds himself in an almost impossible role, stuck between a rock and a hard place, forced reluctantly to use the veto, and seeing the little remaining goodwill toward the U.S. in the Muslim world evaporate.

This is a turning point in the history of the Middle East. Stay tuned!

For more details, see the earlier post “Palestinian Statehood: Will It Bring Peace?”

Additional updates may be posted on our Facebook page as the UN votes take place.