Shifting Alliances in the Middle East

With Hamas rejecting the Syrian regime and losing Iranian support, the landscape of the Middle East is once again shifting. In light of Bible prophecy, where will it all lead?

Aside from its usual lack of peace, the Middle East has rarely been predictable. That’s the way things look once again in early 2012, as revolutions, civil wars and shifting alliances continue to churn.

Increasing isolation of Syria

The bloody killing continues in Syria. In what looks to be the start of a protracted civil war, the city of Homs remains under brutal and relentless siege by the forces of Bashar al-Assad. Hundreds of civilians in that town reportedly were killed in one 24-hour assault by the regime’s forces. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the argument could be made that President Assad fits into the category of war criminal, while the United Nations reported that more than 7,500 civilians have been killed since the uprising began (Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Reuters.com, Feb. 28, 2012).

So cruel has been the conduct of the Syrian regime that many of its erstwhile allies have now turned against it and are supporting the opposition. Nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt are becoming increasingly vocal in their criticism of the Syrian regime.

At an Arab League meeting held in early February, diplomats passed a resolution “to ‘provide all kinds of political and material support’ to the opposition. … ‘We will back the opposition financially and diplomatically in the beginning but if the killing by the regime continues, civilians must be helped to protect themselves. The resolution gives Arab states all options to protect the Syrian people,’” an Arab ambassador said in Cairo (Edmund Blair and Ayman Samir, Reuters.com, Feb. 14, 2012).

Hamas turns against Syria

Along with the Sunni Arab nations and governments, the fundamentalist group Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, is now turning against Alawite-ruled Syria. Formerly in alliance with Shiite Iran, Hamas was a strange bedfellow, united with its allies Iran, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon in opposition to Israel, but divided by a belief in a different brand of Islam.

Yet the ongoing violence in Syria eventually led Hamas, a group sworn to the destruction of the state of Israel and branded a “terrorist” group by both the United States and Israel, to swing out of the Iranian orbit.

It took a little pressure, but Hamas’ generous Iranian patron was eventually ditched, along with the Palestinian group’s Syrian base. “‘Qatar and Turkey urged us to leave Syria immediately,’ said a senior Hamas security official. … ‘They said, “Have you no shame? It’s enough. You have to get out”’” (Joshua Mitnick, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7, 2011).

Now, nearly three months later, Hamas is establishing new offices in Cairo and Doha and evacuating its presence in Damascus. This will bring it closer to its ideological big brother, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and swing it decisively out of the Iranian column.

“‘The Iranians are not happy with our position on Syria, and when they are not happy they don’t deal with you in the same old way,’ [Hamas official Abu Marzouk] said, referring to a drop in Iranian aid to Hamas” (abcnews.go.com, Feb. 26, 2012).

So Iran loses a link in its axis. It may soon lose another if the Assad regime falls in Syria, which is now beginning to look like a bloody inevitability. The arc of Shiite-ruled nations, beginning in Iran and including the Shiite-dominated Iraq, Syria (whose Alawite regime is an offshoot of Shia Islam) and Lebanon (its government strangled by the Shiite Hezbollah movement), will look quite different when Bashar al-Assad falls. Iran will lose supply routes to arm its Lebanese ally, as well as land access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Peace talks produce little

Meantime, another round of Mideast peace talks have come and gone without accomplishment. King Abdullah II of Jordan, alarmed by recent developments and concerned that the window of opportunity for peace may be fast closing, sponsored talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in Amman during the month of January. The talks were supported by the Middle East “Quartet” (the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Russia). Five low-level talking sessions produced very little, with both sides blaming the other for the breakdown of the talks.

If the attempt at Palestinian “reconciliation” goes anywhere at all, further peace talks with Israel are unlikely. Fundamentalist Hamas and nationalist Fatah speak of a unity government under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority. Yet Hamas explicitly rejects acceptance of the state of Israel and adoption of the nonviolent path, both of which are included in past agreements between the PA and Israel.

The Israelis have told Mahmoud Abbas, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, that he can have Hamas or Israel, but not both. In the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “You can’t have it both ways. … It’s either a pact with Hamas or peace with Israel. It’s one or the other. You can’t have them both.”

Nuclear showdown: Iran and Israel

Looming in the background is the increasing tension between Israel and Iran.

Sunni Arab states have told the United States that an Iranian nuclear bomb would lead to a dangerous arms race in the Middle East. Nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt would feel constrained to consider developing their own nuclear arms.

Yet the possibility of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel (with or without the acquiescence of the United States) would alter the whole equation and likely swing much of the Muslim world back toward sympathy with Iran.

The saber rattling continues, with Iran expressing increasingly belligerent threats and some Israelis speaking of an attack now being preferable to possible nuclear extinction later, no matter what the immediate cost. “‘We think that Israel still has not decided whether to attack or not, but it is clear to us that it is being considered seriously,’ [a senior U.S. official] said” (haaretz.com, Feb. 19, 2012).

Dangers predicted

The immediate future looks murky, dangerous and unpredictable. Yet these dangers were prophesied in the Bible millennia ago. The book of Genesis records a prophecy from God about Ishmael, the son of Abraham and progenitor of many of the modern-day Arabs: “He [Ishmael] shall be a wild man; his hand shall be against every man, and every man’s hand against him. And he shall dwell in the presence of all his brethren” (Genesis 16:12).

And of Esau, progenitor of many Muslim nations, the patriarch Isaac was inspired to prophesy, “By your sword you shall live, and you shall serve your brother [Jacob]; and it shall come to pass, when you become restless, that you shall break his yoke from your neck” (Genesis 27:40).

“Neither shall they learn war anymore”

The short term will not bring lasting peace; but the long term looks better—much better. In due time, the Creator of all mankind will send Jesus Christ the Messiah, who will introduce a reign of true, lasting peace—even in areas of the world where conflict once seemed intractable.

“He shall judge between many peoples, and rebuke strong nations afar off; they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore” (Micah 4:3).

That’s a time to look forward to. In the meantime, let’s keep our eyes on the Middle East as Bible prophecy unfolds.

Ralph Levy is a minister of the Church of God, a Worldwide Association, who grew up in England and now lives in the United States. Dr. Levy enjoys reading, travel and foreign languages. He has a Ph.D. in biblical studies and has worked in foreign language and religious education for much of his life.

For more about the Middle East in the light of Bible prophecy, see:

• Arab World in Crisis: Where Will It Lead?
• Keep Watching the Middle East!
• Is Israel Going to Bomb Iran Within Months?
• Egypt Hardens