What’s Next for Egypt and Israel?

Is the fragile, relative “peace” of recent decades coming to an end? The Middle East is important to watch, since what happens there affects the whole world. And it is a focal point of end-time Bible prophecy.

The “Arab Spring,” the wave of revolutions against dictatorships in the Arab world, has been in news headlines for months. U.S. President Barack Obama explained his view of these movements in his important May 19 policy speech, explaining his administration’s view of the popular uprisings and maintaining that they are effective movements toward democracy.

Many Arabs do want democratic government; at least they want the benefits: low corruption, fundamental freedoms and economic prosperity. Informed commentators, however, question the likelihood that the Arab world can achieve functional democracy.

Professor Timur Kuran, an expert on the Arab world, recently wrote that there is such a weak political and cultural foundation for democracy in the region, that functional democracy will be impossible for generations. The most likely post-revolution governments, he posits, will simply be different autocratic regimes.

What next in Egypt?

If new dictatorships are the most likely form of government to replace the old dictatorships in Arab nations, what would that mean for Egypt? This Muslim country is especially important because of its large population, its proximity to Israel and its past wars and current peace treaty with Israel. A breakdown of relations between Israel and Egypt would destabilize the Middle East and, potentially, the whole world. Events are trending in this direction.

The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest political organization in Egypt; it is quite likely that it will gain a majority of seats in parliamentary elections to be held this fall in Egypt. The nation’s new leaders will almost certainly be from this group. What would their policies be?

One candidate for president associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, Sheikh Hazem Abu Ismail, has stated that he would push for the implementation of Sharia law in Egypt, making it a hard-line Islamist nation.

Bad news for Israel

The Muslim Brotherhood, which claims to reject violence, made very positive statements about Osama bin Laden at the time of his death and also leaves a very large “exception” in its policy of nonviolence: violence is acceptable against “military occupation.” To them, this means that terrorism is quite acceptable in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, Iraq and, of course, Israel—virtually all the ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world.

The Muslim Brotherhood has already called for a review of the 1978 peace treaty with Israel, which they wish to cancel.

Other recent events already show a hardening of Egypt’s approach toward Israel. This began due to a surprising deal in the Gaza Strip. The terrorist Islamist movement Hamas, which took Gaza by force from the Palestinian Authority (backed by the secular Fatah movement) in May of 2007, recently signed a protocol of reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority in order to work toward new elections.

Egypt then opened its border with Gaza, which had been closed in May 2007, as a means of pressuring Hamas to accept democratic elections. Israel’s protests over the danger this could pose for more terrorism fell on deaf Egyptian ears.

The natural gas pipeline that runs from Egypt to Israel and Jordan has been twice sabotaged by unknown forces, most recently on April 27. Though the pipeline has been repaired and ready to function for days, Egypt still has not allowed the gas to flow. Apparently no authorities want to make the unpopular decision to resume operations in spite of contractual obligations.

There is clearly a hardening Egyptian hostility toward Israel that is destined to grow and finally lead to open war.

War will come to Jerusalem

The land of Israel and specifically the city of Jerusalem represent the focal point of biblical history and prophecies. Prior to the return of Jesus Christ to establish Jerusalem as capital city of the Kingdom of God on earth (Isaiah 2:3), there will be war between Europe to the north of Israel and the Muslim nations to the south (Daniel 11:40-43). The land of Israel will likely be the cause and will certainly be swept into this conflagration.

All the armies of the world will finally march on Jerusalem for the ultimate showdown between rebellious humanity and Almighty God (Revelation 19:11-21). Zechariah 12:2-3 says of that time, “Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of drunkenness to all the surrounding peoples, when they lay siege against Judah and Jerusalem. And it shall happen in that day that I will make Jerusalem a very heavy stone for all peoples; all who would heave it away will surely be cut in pieces, though all nations of the earth are gathered against it.”

That, of course, is all still in the future. For the present, we can ask if the relative peace of the last 25 years between Israel and its neighbors will soon come to an end, and open hostilities will again begin. If so, it will set the stage for the accomplishment of end-time Bible prophecy.

Thankfully, Jesus Christ will cut short that terrible time of war and will bring the Kingdom of God. Read this good news in our booklet The Mystery of the Kingdom.

Joel Meeker is a pastor, writer and experienced Middle East traveler, having made several trips to both Egypt and Israel.